2018 Volume 33 Pages 175-185
Under the post-earthquake fires, one of the effective strategies for securing inhabitants’ safe is guiding them to an evacuation space in real-time with the forecast of firespread based on fire information gathered by the public sector. However, the firespread estimation includes the errors between the forecasted fire speed and the actual one. In this study, we suggested the optimization method of a safe route considering the uncertainty of the fire spread estimation. First, we modeled the safety index called "safe margin of evacuation". This index intends the maximum tolerance on the deviation between the forecasted fire speed and the actual one. Second, we develop the method how to maximin the index on the route. Finally, we discussed the characteristics of the optimal route with the computer simulation.
