Impacts of the TPP Agreement on Beef Demand in Japan: An Analysis by Class

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to econometrically clarify the demand structure for beef in Japan by disaggregating beef into four classes and considering the non-stationarity of time series data, and then to consider the impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement on the domestic production of beef. The main analysis results are as follows. First, demand for imported meats are more elastic to own price and meat expenditure compared with demand for domestically produced meats. Second, the TPP Agreement will not significantly affect the quantities demanded for Japanese beef and hybridize type beef but will decrease the quantity demanded for dairy beef by 8.6%. Third, the situation after the TPP Agreement came into effect will be different from the situation after the beef tariffication; thus, we cannot expect a mitigation effect of trade liberalization impacts, such as compensating for the decrease in production of dairy beef by the increase in production of Japanese beef.