福島第一原発事故から10年―世界の専門家による影響予測は正しかったか?―

抄録

Since the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident (hereinafter referred to as the “Fukushima Daiichi accident”) occurred in March 2011, many experts around the world have conducted the assessments on radiation doses and health effects attributed to the Fukushima Daiichi accident. During the months soon after the accident while the state of the nuclear reactor was not accurately grasped, the radiation exposure of the residents was estimated based on the predicted environmental behavior of various radionuclides. However, there were significant differences in the estimated doses and effects presented by different researchers and research institutes. As investigations on the causes and progress of the Fukushima Daiichi accident have progressed in last 10 years, now we know better the situation and consequence of the accident. In this article, the contents of relevant papers and reports published during the three years (–2014) after the Fukushima Daiichi accident are briefly reviewed and then compared with the relatively new scientific information obtained in 2015 or later. Through these analyses, the author tries to look back on how correct or incorrect the initial estimates were.