Has Green Revolution Ended? A Review of Long-Term Trends in MV Adoption, Rice Yields, and Rice Income in Central Luzon, 1966-99

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to assess the impacts of successive generations of modern variety (MV) of rice on rice yields and income from 1966/67 to 1998/99. Yield rose albeit modestly following the release of first-generation of MVs (MV1), which are potentially higher yielding than the traditional varieties (TVs) but are susceptible to attacks of pests and diseases. Rice income per hectare per season did not rise with the adoption of MV1 indicating that the income-increasing effect of MV1 is limited. A major yield boost was achieved following the diffusion of the second-generation of MVs (MV2), which incorporated resistance against multiple pests and diseases. MV2 has a significant positive effect on rice income because of its high yield and suitability for dry season cropping. Moreover, input prices remained low in the years of diffusion of MV2, which further complements the positive effect of MV2 on rice income. Yield began to stagnate with the diffusion of the third-generation of MVs (MV3) because MV3 are superior with respect to grain quality but not so much with respect to yield. Meanwhile, wage rates rose rapidly during the period of diffusion of MV3 as a result of the development of non-farm sector. Rice income has remained fairly the same during the period of diffusion of MV3.