Modeling of Flight Time Uncertainty in 4D Trajectory Management

Abstract

The feasibility of the flight time uncertainty modeling in 4-dimensional trajectory is discussed. The flight time uncertainty causes due to the difference between both the estimated and actual wind speeds and the control input and the output of the flight speed. According to the standard deviation analyses using the actual operation data, it has been demonstrated that the model of the flight time standard deviation is able to describe the tendency of its magnitude. It is further clarified that the correlation between the true air speed and the estimated wind speed should also be considered in the modeling to improve its accuracy. It is indispensable to take this correlation into consideration in the uncertainty modeling in the 4-dimensional trajectory operation.