エネルギー・資源学会論文誌
Online ISSN : 2433-0531
ISSN-L : 2433-0531
研究論文
統合型エネルギー経済モデルによる2050年までの日本の長期エネルギー需給見通しと輸入水素導入シナリオの分析
松尾 雄司川上 恭章柴田 善朗末広 茂栁澤 明
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2014 年 35 巻 2 号 p. 23-32

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In this paper the authors estimated long-term hydrogen introduction scenarios in Japan up to 2050, using an integrated energy model which combines an econometric demand model and a bottom-up type technology introduction model, and assuming the introduction of “CO2-free” imported hydrogen. In the cases that assume ambitious CO2 emission reduction targets, and set realistic limits for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a massive volume of hydrogen is introduced as a fuel for combined cycle power generation, reducing the marginal CO2 abatement costs significantly.
In normal cases the use of CO2-free hydrogen is less cost-effective than the introduction of CCS. It must be noted, however, that CO2-free hydrogen can gain cost-effectiveness if imported fossil fuel prices become extremely high. In this perspective, the option of introducing CO2-free hydrogen can be regarded as a measure to reduce the risk of price spikes and/or an alternative measure to reduce CO2 emissions with the possible limited availability of the CCS technology.

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