2020 年 41 巻 5 号 p. 176-185
This study aimed to analyze the economic impact of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the current policies related to climate and energy. The study evaluated international competitiveness for 2030 using a global energy-economic model. The assessment of the macroeconomic impact of NDCs indicates that large differences between countries regarding marginal abatement costs are estimated and that the economic effects differ greatly between countries. The developed countries with relatively ambitious targets are adversely affected, especially in terms of the productions and exports of energy-intensive industries. With substantial differences in policy stringencies among regions, carbon leakage is induced through international trade, which represents production shifts from the developed countries with high marginal abatement costs to some developing countries with almost zero marginal costs. There is a risk that the effectiveness of emission reductions worldwide is reduced significantly, which is a serious concern. Such excessive adverse effects on the international competitiveness of developed countries may result in a decline in the production of and investment in environmentally friendly products, thus decreasing the international contribution and technological development and diffusion.