Are Simulation Models Useful for Transportation Planning?

Abstract

Well understanding a behavior and/or psychological disposition underlying the behavior is sometimes, or rather often, indispensable in order to understanding macroscopic transportation phenomenon. The discrete-choice model, which has been used as a behavioral model in transportation researches, is not always appropriate in terms of psychological theories, whereas findings of psychological disposition related to travel behavior might be able to yield some policy implication. A simulation model which accounts for psychological dispositions is one alternative methodology of travel demand analysis.If a simulation model is used for the purpose of quantitative demand analysis, the regional and social consensus of the interpretation of the simulation result is indispensable. If it is used for the purpose of qualitative understanding of macroscopic phenomenon, the behavioral or psychological model embedded in the simulation model must be valid empirically and theoretically, and the appropriate verbal discussions based on the numerical simulation results are indispensable.