Ex-post Evaluation Method of Prediction of Transportation Demand by SCGE Model

Abstract

It has become common to use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for evaluation of transportation investment, recently. In this study, we apply Dynamic Spatial CGE model to the prediction of transportation demand. SCGE model has some advantages to use for the prediction of transportation demand compared to using four-step method. Firstly, we summarize the advantage of SCGE model from ex-post evaluation point of view and propose a methodology for ex-post evaluation of the prediction of transportation demand. And, we apply this method to estimate the transportation demand in Japan.