FORECASTNG METHOD OF TRAFFIC GENERATION/ATTRACTION AND DISTIBUTION ON TIME-OF-DAY BASIS

Abstract

Four Step Estimation Approach for travel demand forecasting is used most widely in Japan. However this approach is unable to apply hourly travel demand forecasting which is fit for analyzing traffic congestion or traffic demand in peak hours because the approach aims at estimating daily travel demand.
As we have proposed a time-of-day traffic assignment model in the previous paper, in this paper we propose two approaches for estimating hourly traffic generation/attraction and distribution before estimating modal split. One approach estimates straight by hour from traffic generation/attraction to distribution. Another approach estimates hourly traffic distribution after daily traffic distribution was estimated. Two approaches presented here are compared through application to the data in 1971 and 1981.