ESTIMATION METHOD FOR PORT CARGO DEMANDS AFTER LARGE-SCALE EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS

Abstract

 Ports are among the most essential infrastructures for international and domestic trades. Since Japan is an island country, its major ports are requested to prepare business continuity plans (BCPs) to facilitate early recovery of port functions in the context of maintaining the local and national economy. Major objectives of the BCPs in ports include maintaining sufficient cargo handling capacity to meet the transportation demands, of which post-disaster forecast is essential to properly secure business continuity in the port.
 Based on the above consideration, this study discusses the possible development of demand estimation methods for port cargo handling volumes in the aftermath of large-scale disasters. The questionnaire/ interview and inventory analysis are suitable for undertaking the estimation in terms of tramper service cargos such as dry/liquid bulk cargos and complete cars, of which a limited number of cargo owners are involved. The statistical approaches are effective for the estimation of liner service cargos such as container and ferry transport, which involve a large and unspecified number of cargo owners. Theoretical concepts, specific examples and considerations of suggested methods are indicated. The authors deem that these discussions may pave the way to the introduction of further sophisticated methodologies for port-BCP preparation.