Five-year disease-related risk of mortality in ambulatory frail older Japanese

Abstract

Objectives　We investigated the 5-year disease-related mortality risk, including that associated with neoplasms, mental/behavioral/neurodevelopmental disorders, and diseases of the circulatory system and respiratory system,in ambulatory frail Japanese older adults.

Methods　We retrospectively analyzed long-term care and health insurance claims data in this cohort study performed between April 2012 and March 2017. The primary outcome was mortality, and the secondary outcome was care-need level decline. Risk factors were determined based on the International Statistical Classification of Disease and Related Health Problems, 10^th Revision codes, hospitalization, and institutionalization. The study included 1,239 ambulatory frail older adults newly certified as needing Support-Level care at baseline (April 2012-March 2013) across three Japanese municipalities.

Results　Of the 1,239 participants, 454 (36.6%) died. Neoplasms (hazard ratio [HR] 2.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.97-3.68) or respiratory system diseases (HR 1.62, 95%CI 1.26-2.08) were independently associated with mortality. Mental/behavioral/neurodevelopmental disorders (HR 1.39, 95%CI 1.17-1.66) or diseases of the respiratory system(HR 86, 95%CI 75-99) were independently associated with care-need level decline.

Conclusions　This study suggests that neoplasms or respiratory system diseases were associated with a high mortality risk and that mental/behavioral/neurodevelopmental disorders were associated with care-need level decline among ambulatory frail older adults. Optimal disease management and effective long-term care are important to delay the onset of these events in older adults certified as needing Support-Level care.