抄録
In order to evaluate the economic impacts of sets of interdependent major interregional infrastructure investments, such as transportation, as welll as to allow calibration to data at the regional level, a framework for a probabilistic Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model is introduced. Firstly, the foundations of a probabilistic approach to spatial planning using aggregate data are described. Then, a short-run probabilistic spatial supply model for analysis of multi-sectoral regional production and interregional trade is presented, followed by a sketch of a companion model of spatial household demand. Finally, the short-run spatial supply and demand models are embedded in a long-run sequential dynamic framework, potentially allowing the timing, location and scope of sets of large infrastructure inventments to be better coordinated.
