Future population distribution of an urban agglomeration given climate change scenarios

抄録

 A systematic method to project the future distribution of population in megacities is introduced. Two general steps were discussed: (1) estimation of urban sprawl by an urban growth model, SLEUTH; (2) estimation of population distribution by a logistic model with variable empirical coefficients. Predicting the annual change from 2014 to 2050, Jakarta megacity was used as a benchmark urban agglomeration. The key inputs are historical land cover and geographic information, transportation networks, high-spatial resolution population density, and country-level projection of population as defined by various shared socio-economic pathways (SSP). Coefficients were modified in SLEUTH to predict urban sprawling (and auxiliary probability map) compatible with a suitable SSP faced by the encompassing country. Utilizing the predicted annual probability of urbanization and the key inputs into a discrete logistic model with empirical coefficients fitted to minimize the difference of total predicted population with that provided by SSP, population distribution of the target urban agglomeration, Jakarta, was obtained.