TRAFFIC DISRUPTION IMPACTS ANALYSIS BY ECONOMIC EQUILIBRIUM MODEL CONSTRAINED USER EQUILIBRIUM

Abstract

This study describes a method to estimate the impacts of traffic disruption caused by disasters. The proposed economic equilibrium model calculates the economic impacts by determining transportation costs endogenously. Other economic equilibrium models that consider traffic impacts generally treat transportation costs as exogenous variables. Since the trading amount associated with traffic disruptions is derivatively determined by regional economic activities, transportation costs are better calculated as endogenous variables. Algorithms to solve equilibrium problems with equilibrium constraints (EPECs) have recently been developed. We treat the economic equilibrium with traffic equilibrium as an EPEC and describe the potential of considering transportation costs as endogenous variables. Numerical experiments confirm the use of such a model to estimate the regional economic impacts of traffic disruptions.