2019 Volume 75 Issue 4 Pages 233-249
The number of cases where the deterioration of an infrastructure is caused by an external factor immediately is not so large. The effects of such external factors tend to accumulate and then cause deterioration after a while. In this study, the authors monitor the progress of deterioration of a structure based on the measurements obtained on a real-time basis for a long period of time, and proposes a methodology for detecting abnormalities in a preventive manner. In detail, the authors propose an ARFIMAX-FIGARCH model considering long-term memories regarding the effects of external factors on structures to model deterioration of a structure with a time lag. Furthermore, the proposed methodology is applied to the monitoring data of the expansion joints of actual expressways, in order to discuss its effectiveness.