Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)
Online ISSN : 2185-6540
ISSN-L : 2185-6540
Paper (In Japanese)
INFRASTRUCTURE DETERIORATION PROCESS MODELING BY TIME-SERIES DATA WITH LONG MEMORY
Kiyoshi KOBAYASHIKiyoyuki KAITODaijiro MIZUTANIYasuhito SAKAI
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2019 Volume 75 Issue 4 Pages 233-249

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Abstract

 The number of cases where the deterioration of an infrastructure is caused by an external factor immediately is not so large. The effects of such external factors tend to accumulate and then cause deterioration after a while. In this study, the authors monitor the progress of deterioration of a structure based on the measurements obtained on a real-time basis for a long period of time, and proposes a methodology for detecting abnormalities in a preventive manner. In detail, the authors propose an ARFIMAX-FIGARCH model considering long-term memories regarding the effects of external factors on structures to model deterioration of a structure with a time lag. Furthermore, the proposed methodology is applied to the monitoring data of the expansion joints of actual expressways, in order to discuss its effectiveness.

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© 2019 Japan Society of Civil Engineers
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