2024 Volume 80 Issue 20 Article ID: 24-20003
Heuristic decision-making may be prioritized when people face rare events such as natural disasters because of lack of experience, incomplete information, and situation awareness of the surrounding environment. This raises questions about modeling evacuation behavior during heavy rain, when evacuation delays frequently occur, by considering only logical thinking. Therefore, in this study, we model the decisionmaking process of evacuation behavior during heavy rainfall using the frameworks of both protection motivation theory and naturalistic decision-making. Specifically, we estimate a decision-making model for evacuation behavior based on the results of a survey conducted among residents in Tokyo and 14 prefectures affected by Typhoon No. 19 in 2019. With this model, we conducted simulations to examine the potential effectiveness of measures such as enhancing disaster prevention efforts during normal times and promoting situational awareness during heavy rains in facilitating early horizontal evacuation.
