2025 Volume 81 Issue 17 Article ID: 25-17013
This study evaluated tsunami inundations in estuarine regions in the Nobi Plain, Aichi Prefecture, considering both tsunamis and river discharge (normal / 95 days specific discharge) as well as the sea level rise. The maximum error in tsunami arrival time within the model was 8 minutes, and the error in average tsunami height at six inner bay locations was within 1 m. The impact of climate change-projected sea level rise (0.2 m / 0.5 m) in 2050 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario was assessed. The results showed that differences in river discharge (normal / 95 days specific discharge) were negligible in inundation characteristics. However, when the sea level rise was considered, the inundated area was extended up to 51%, and the average inundation depth increased by 41%. Furthermore, in scenarios where tsunamis and sea levels rise overlapped with high tides, the inundated area expanded by approximately 3.2 times compared to current assumptions.
