PREDICTION USING ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN-WAVE COUPLED MODEL FOR POSSIBLE MAXIMUM STORM SURGE IN TOKYO BAY

Abstract

  A storm surge caused by typhoon FITOW (2007) in Tokyo Bay was reproduced using an atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled model. Comparisons of the storm tides between the calculated values and observed ones were performed at four observation stations located in Tokyo Bay. It was demonstrated that the coupled model can accurately calculate high storm tides in Tokyo Bay.
  Then, distributions of possible maximum storm surges in Tokyo Bay caused by potential typhoons of 50 cases under present climate were predicted by using the coupled model and a tropical cyclone potential vorticity bogussing scheme. The results show that the potential storm tide exceeds 2 m over the large area in Tokyo Bay and its maximum value reaches 3.3 m, which exceeds the largest storm tide 2.3 m ever recorded in Tokyo Bay.