Suppressive influence of seasonal influenza epidemic on Kawasaki disease onset

Abstract

  Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute systemic vasculitis presenting as an infantile febrile disease. In Japan, the widespread cedar plantation commenced in 1945 has been correlated with the increased incidences of both KD and allergic rhinitis (pollinosis) since the early 1960s. We previously showed that KD was a pollen-induced, delayed-type hypersensitivity that displays biphasic peaks in both summer and winter. KD incidences decrease suddenly around February, particularly after influenza epidemics. Here we investigated the reason for a drastic decrease in KD onsets directly before spring pollen release following rapid increase after autumn pollen release leading to the biphasic pattern. We separately analyzed weekly incidences of KD and influenza in Tokyo (1987-2010) and Kanagawa (1991-2002). Repeated measures for the analysis of variance followed by Bonferroni's multiple comparison tests were performed to compare KD incidence over 3 consecutive weeks, including the weeks when the mean KD prevalence showed the steepest decrease. Next, the week with peak influenza incidence was reset for each year. KD incidence over 3 consecutive weeks, including the new origin week (adjusted week 0), was similarly analyzed. In Tokyo and Kanagawa, KD incidence significantly decreased only after resetting the influenza peak time. These findings suggested that influenza epidemics suppressed KD onset.