With increasing integration of renewable energy, especially photovoltaics (PV), maintaining supply-demand balance is a growing challenge. This study proposes a three-stage method to enable PV participation in the balancing market through day-ahead scheduling while managing imbalance risks. First, a headroom-setting algorithm is developed to absorb PV prediction errors. Second, a rare-event risk model identifies over/underestimation, supporting scenario-based bidding decisions. Third, a priority-based scheduling method is proposed for balancing market bidding.
The approach is evaluated by examining feasible annual bids, shortage count, and expected revenue. In Scenario 1, application of the Linear-SVC model resulted in 524 feasible bids, with annual shortfalls reduced to 42—close to the target of 36—and improved revenue. This framework demonstrates the potential for PV systems to provide balancing reserve power while minimizing prediction risks and enhancing market participation outcomes.
