A Trial of Multiple Correlation Analysis of the Annual Changes in Health Indicators and Socio-economic Indicators(1950-1976) in Japan

Abstract

The Meiji Restoration was like the bursting of a dam, behind which had been accumulating many centuries worth of energy. Japan set out to achieve in only a few decades what had taken the West a few centuries, namely, the establishment of a modern nation - with modern industries, modern political institutions and a modern pattern of society. After being defeated in World War II, Japan experienced foreign occupation for the first time in her history until April of 1952. The Japanese economy, which had been completely ravaged by the war, had almost recovered to its prewar level by 1950, and thereafter, rushed into a new stage of development. Along with the restoration and extention of production, the consumption level of the people has risen and the substance of life has improved. The various types of technological innovation promoted the high economic growth of the 1960's. At the same time, population and industries became concentrated in the cities, and so-called Tokaido Megalopolis was formed. Problems such as environmental disruption, traffic congestion and housing shortage have become manifest. As a result, countermeasures for pollution, and the provision of broader social welfare schemes in the context of moderate, economic growth have become two of the foremost needs for Japan to cope with. As we reported previously at the Tokyo Conference on Comparative Fertility Transition in Asia, in 1978, very high correlation coefficients were calculated between the annual changes in various socio-economic indicators and life expectancy at birth (1950 - 1975). However the gross reproduction rate was the only exception which got the only low correlation coefficients with the other indicators. The Japanese economy entered a highgrowth path, centering on equipment investment and the expansion of imports through private enterprises, from the fiscal year of 1955 through the last half of the 1960's. After the oil crisis in the Autumn of 1973, negative growth was recorded for the first time since the war in the fiscal year of 1974, and a switch to a more stable growth path became necessary. Subsequently, domestic business conditions began to slowly move out of the worst stage of the recession, but not totally satisfactorily. Utilization of production facilities are still considerably below the peak, prior to recession.