Impact of climate change on lake temperature and water quality using the high resolution MRI-GCM20

Abstract

Sensitivity analysis on lake temperature under the SRES climate change scenarios (A1B) has been evaluated by coupling MRI-GCM with 20 km outputs and the Biwa-3D integrated assessment model. The non-hydrostatic 3D hydrodynamic model featuring Very Large Eddy Simulation (VLES) has been verified and compared with field observations in 2002 (the present-day year, PDY). Improved spatial resolution results better agreement with observation result in temperature distribution. Vertical distribution of dissolved oxygen is projected and concluded that there may be a severe decrease in concentration especially at the lake bottom in Very-hot year, VHY, compared to PDY.