Abstract
In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we collected climate ensemble experiments and evaluated their reliability. We prepared preliminary ensemble experiments based on the latest reliability assessment and scientific knowledge. We collected the climate ensemble experiments. In addition, we evaluated the reliability of each ensemble experiment and examined the uncertainty in future changes in temperature and precipitation from regional climate scenarios. We reviewed relevant literatures on existing analysis techniques and meteorological variables.
To develop a prototype of probabilistic climate scenario on high impact low probability event, we reviewed relevant literatures and participated in scientific meetings on ensemble methods such as perturbed physics ensemble, stochastic physics, multi-physics ensemble, multi-model ensemble, and statistical rare event sampling method.
