大規模アンサンブル気候実験によるアジアの洪水に対する温暖化の影響の調査

抄録

Heavy precipitation events have been increased in recent years and it caused due to human-induced global warming. The latest IPCC-AR5 showed the global warming affects the scale and frequency of floods. However, with regard to extreme events, such as floods, there have been no studies being conducted the past flood changes in Asia region. Therefore, this study uses Even Attribution (EA) technique based on four different conditions (time period and with or without anthropogenic forcing) of EA experiment data derived from MIROC5-AGCM and CaMa-Flood model to quantitatively investigate the contribution of global warming to the Asian floods. The final result indicated that human-induced climate change increased the probabilities of the Songhua river floods in 2013 and the Yalu river floods in 2010 by 43-62% and 39-42%, respectively. Anthropogenic warming had almost no effect on the Indus River floods in 2010. In the case of the Brahmaputra river, fraction of attributable risk of two different EA experiments NAT (only natural forcing) showed the different trends.