Deterioration Prediction Model of Irrigation Facilities by Markov Chain Model

Abstract

"Stock Management" launched in all over Japan is an activity to use irrigation facilities effectively and to reduce life cycle costs of theirs. Deterioration prediction of the irrigation facility condition is a vital process for the study of maintenance measures and the estimation of maintenance cost. It is important issue to establish the prediction technique with higher accuracy. Thereupon, we established a deterioration prediction model by a statistical method "Markov chain", and analyzed a function diagnosis data of irrigation facilities. As a result, we clarified the deterioration characteristics into each structure type and facilities.