RESEARCH ON SURROGATE MODEL BASED ON KRIGING INTERPOLATION

抄録

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis are used to quantify the influence of each key uncertainty parameter on key output parameters in complex systems, including quantifying the contribution of each input parameter to the uncertainty of the output parameter and the overall uncertainty of the output parameter. Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty include deterministic analysis method and statistical analysis method, among which statistical analysis method is widely used because it has better flexibility in uncertainty analysis. When statistical analysis method is used for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis, it is necessary to generate a sample set by sampling method, and repeatedly call the main calculation program, resulting in high computational cost. Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis based on surrogate models can greatly improve computational efficiency. In this paper, based on the sensitivity analysis of key parameters of effective proliferation factor Keff, a surrogate model based on Kriging interpolation is constructed according to the variation characteristics of the effective proliferation factor under different uncertain engineering parameters such as fuel rod radius and density. The surrogate model based on Kriging interpolation can be used to analyze sensitivity effectively