Development of Biological Prognostic Score Versions 2 and 3 for Advanced Cancer Patients and a Prospective Study on the Prediction Accuracy: Comparison with the Palliative Prognostic Index

Abstract

Objectives: We developed versions 2 and 3 of the Biological Prognostic Score (BPS) for advanced cancer patients and confirmed the prediction accuracy. Methods: We conducted a parametric survival analysis using blood test data, performance status (PS), clinical symptoms, age, sex, and cancer type as variables for advanced cancer patients who completed or suspended cancer treatment, in the development of BPS2 and BPS3. We then prospectively compared the accuracy between BPS2/BPS3 and the Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI). Results: We developed the BPS2 and BPS3 based on the data from 589 patients in a development cohort. While the former version was calculated based on the cholinesterase, blood urea nitrogen, and white blood cell counts, the latter was calculated based on the BPS2, ECOG PS and edema. For 206 patients in a validation cohort, the overall accuracy in prediction of survival for 3 and 6 weeks using the BPS2 and BPS3 were significantly higher than those for the PPI. Conclusion: The usefulness of BPS2 and BPS3 was suggested.