Quantitative Evaluation of Vulnerabilities in Coastal Structures due to Climate Change -Case Studies for Breakwaters-

Abstract

Climate change is expected to lead to increases in both sea level and typhoon intensity. Such changes may threaten the stability of breakwaters. In this study, calculations using the SWAN model showed that a 10% increase in wind speed can lead to a 20% increase in wave height. The expected sliding distances for the breakwaters at Shibushi Ports were estimated using a probabilistic method proposed by Takagi et al. (2008). It is noteworthy that in the future sliding distances may become three times greater than current ones due to a combination of increases in sea level and wave height.