Evaluation of Storm Surge Risk Directly Based on Climate Change Projection

Abstract

Future storm surge risk due to the tropical cyclones (TC) in East Asia is evaluated where the climate change projection by the state-of-the-art atmospheric GCM is employed as driving forces for storm surge simulations. The reproducibility or validity of TC characteristics by the GCM in the northwest Pacific is confirmed comparing with the observed best track data, and future TC change is presented. Storm surge simulations are carried out in the East Asia with the finest nested domain on Japanese coast. Probability of maximum storm surge heights with several return periods are analyzed by extreme statistics. It was found that there are strong regional dependencies on the change of magnitudes of severe storm surge anomalies in the future climate.