Distributions of Possible Maximum Storm Surges and High Waves in Tokyo Bay under Global Warming Affected Climate

Abstract

In this study, a climate in September of 2099 based on the SRES A1B scenario was assumed as the future climate affected by the global warming. 50 cases of potential typhoons striking Tokyo Bay under the assumed future climate were estimated by using potential vorticity bogussing scheme of a tropical cyclone. Then, distributions of the possible maximum storm surges and high waves generated by the 50 potential typhoons were predicted by using an atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled model. The results show that the potential storm tide in Tokyo Port reaches 3.4 m and the maximum storm tide of 4.1 m height in Tokyo Bay is caused in Katunan located at the most inner part of Tokyo Bay. The heights of these storm tides remarkably exceed the largest storm tide 2.3 m ever recorded in Tokyo Bay.