台風渦位ボーガスの改良による大阪湾地域における可能最大高潮の力学的評価

抄録

In this study, the PV-based typhoon bogussing scheme is so suitably modified to initialize typhoon internal structure and its environment for a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model that well-matured typhoons likely make landfall along the Osaka Bay area with the worst impact. For the typhoon initialization, the environmental PV field is divided into average PV field relating to typhoon intensity and anomalous PV field relating to typhoon movement. Substituting the average PV field of Typhoon 5915 and the anomalous PV field of Typhoon 0918, it is estimated that the maximum potential storm surge induced by a fully developed and closely approaching typhoon become about 3.3 m at the Port of Osaka, which is greater than 3.1m, the highest storm surge during the entire history.