Sensitivity Analysis on Breakwater Stability of Tsunami Uncertainty by Stochastic Tsunami Source Model for Tohoku Earthquake

抄録

 Most of breakwaters which were damaged by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami have been reconstructed to withstand the same M_w 9.0 earthquake or smaller intensity. However, as the same tsunami is unlikely to occur, future tsunami defense strategy should consider the variability of tsunami sources. This study investigates breakwater stability against uncertain tsunamis using a stochastic tsunami source model for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The analysis of the tsunami profiles in five Tohoku ports demonstrated that the locations and topography of these ports strongly influence the variability of the maximum tsunami wave height. The results of the stability analysis confirm that the breakwater stability in the ports depends on tsunami wave profiles affected by regional features. The key findings from this paper suggest that future tsunami defense policy should take into account uncertainty and variability in tsunami wave profiles and regional features of tsunami amplification.