2016 Volume 72 Issue 2 Pages I_247-I_252
Explosively developing extratropical cyclones are becoming one of the important factors to cause a storm surge in winter. This study statistically evaluates risk of storm surge based on 3D flow fields under developing storm surge computed for various meteorological conditions. Vertical structure of the flow in the Nemuro Bay driven by the strong wind and wind-induced surface gradient showed characteristics different from that in the open ocean forming a typical Ekman spiral. Surge height and event duration are sensitive to the cyclone trajectory. The results of this study also shows the highest surge level in the Nemuro Bay had a risk to increase more than 1.5 times as high as the highest surge of the storm event in 2014.