Abstract
A model for predicting long-term beach changes on entire Kujukuri Beach was developed using the contour-line change model considering ground subsidence. By separating four periods between 1947 and 2015, net longshore sand transport distribution was estimated in each period. The results of the calculation agreed with the measured, and the appropriateness of the model was confirmed. Finally, the shoreline change in 30 years from the present was predicted with/without ground subsidence, and the effect of the ground subsidence was evaluated.