ON THE EFFECTS OF A LONG-TERM YEARLY VARIATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ON THE STORM SURGE POTENTIAL IN JAPANESE THREE MAJOR BAYS

Abstract

 The different temporal trend of tropical cyclone properties by each latitude has been shown based on analysis of representative value in each latitudinal band. Some variations of tropical cyclone properties are correlated to two oscillation indices of atmosphere and ocean interaction. The data of tropical cyclone was divided into two groups based on these results. Then representative scenarios for boundary conditions of storm surge simulation were estimated by using statistical approach. The phase change of tropical cyclone is not so large around three major bay, therefore the phase change of storm surge was also small. However, the change of tropical cyclone track caused local change of storm surge event in each bay.