COMPARISON OF FUTURE CHANGE AND ITS UNCETAINTY ON TYPHOON INTENSITY BETWEEN TYPHOON HAIYAN (2013) AND TYPHOON MELOR (2009)

Abstract

 In order to compare the future change and its uncertainty of typhoon intensity and storm surge between Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013) and Melor (2009) due to the differences of global warming scenarios (SRESs) and general circulation models (GCMs), two kinds of pseudo-global warming ensemble experiments are conducted using the high-resolution typhoon model and storm surge model. In the case of Typhoon Haiyan (2013), the peak intensities averaged in SRESs and GCMs are weaken by +3.7hPa and +7.9hPa, respectively. The uncertainty (standard deviation) of peak intensities in GCMs is greater than that in SRESs. In the case of Typhoon Melor (2009), the peak intensity averaged in SRESs is intensified by -5.4hPa, and the one averaged in GCMs is also intensified by -20.1hPa. The averaged landfalling intensities are strengthen in both SRESs and GCMs. The storm surges at Mikawa Bay as a result follow the same pattern in the landfalling intensities. It is concluded that tyhphoon intensities and storm surges in the future climate have larger uncertainties at the mid-latitude than at the low-latitude, due to larger uncertatinties of the vertical wind shear seen in a westerly jet at the mid-latitude.