AVAILABILITY OF ENSEMBLE WEATHER PREDICTION IN STORM SURGES AND OCEAN WAVES FORECASTS

Abstract

 The current ensemble forecasts are inadequate as the input for short-term and medium-term forecasts of waves because their tempo-spatial resolutions are coarse. However, the meso-scale ensemble weather forecasts will be available from June 2019. The forecasts add perturbation to the initial condition of the numerical prediction Meso-Scale Model (MSM) with 5 km spatial resolution. The present study examines the availability of wave forecasts for the uncertainty using meso-scale ensemble weather forecasts. The main conclusion of this study are as follows. (1) Using pressures and winds of coarse spatial resolution, it is possible that judgement as to whether it is a typhoon and estimate of the center position and pressure. (2) The accuracy of simple empirical formula is enough for practical, except for significant wave periods. (3) By using simple empirical formula, it is possible to identify the ensemble member that storm surges and waves are highest.