2022 Volume 78 Issue 1 Pages 1-16
The Guide to Storm Surge Inundation Area Mapping provided by the Japanese government requires the determination of the typhoon path which causes the largest storm surge deviation in the target area (worst typhoon path). In order to find the worst typhoon path, the grid search method is generally used, which is an exhaustive search by gradually translating and rotating a reference path. However, it is unlikely that the “true” worst typhoon path is contained in these paths. Therefore, it is possible to get closer to the worst typhoon path by increasing the degree of freedom of the path representation. However, in the grid search method, it is impossible to find the path with a higher degree of freedom due to the computational cost. In this study, we proposed a new method for finding the worst typhoon path using Bayesian optimization against paths with high degrees of freedom, and developed the search procedure and method. As a result, it is possible to find the path closer to the true worst typhoon path with lower computational costs.