Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)
Online ISSN : 1883-8944
Print ISSN : 1884-2399
ISSN-L : 1883-8944
Paper
LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EXTREME STORM SURGE USING MAXIMUM POTENTIAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT MODEL BASED ON HIGHRESMIP CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
Shun ITONobuhito MORITomoya SHIMURATakuya MIYASHITA
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2022 Volume 78 Issue 2 Pages I_85-I_90

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Abstract

 This study shows how the worst class of typhoons and related storm surge height along major bays in Japan will change based on MPI (Maximum Potential Intensity) theory and MPS (Maximum Potential Storm surge height) model. The climate data used in this study is HighResMIP (High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project) experiment, which includes high-resolution and atmosphere-ocean models. In the Northwestern Pacific, the maximum future changes in MPI were observed in September in 30-40°N latitude band, with an enhancement of -6.1 hPa by 2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The largest change in MPS was observed in Osaka Bay, increasing +0.56 m by 2050. This result indicated that it is important for adaptation measures to consider storm surge changes in addition to sea-level rise.

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© 2022 by Japan Society of Civil Engineers
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