Theoretical Consideration on the Optimality of the Fire-Safety Evaluation System

Abstract

Author tries to construct the frame in which we can discuss the optimality of fire-safety evaluation system.
At first, introducing a simple model on the gain and loss produced by the judgment of fire-safety evaluation system, it is shown that the desired evaluation system should minimize the loss from the result of the judgment. Next, a requirement is deduced. The requirement expresses the optimal condition of system by three factors : 1) conditional probability of observation data under the each fire safety level, 2) appearance probability of the building of the each safe level and 3) the loss by each case. In addition, a proposition that expresses the requirement of the error smallest evaluation system is obtained.
Finally, point addition type evaluation system used by actual evaluation system was examined. It is shown that although the point addition type evaluation system is very simple, it has the possibility to become the loss smallest evaluation system when each item is statistically independent.