2010 Volume 60 Issue 2 Pages 11-20
In this study, a probabilistic model of spotting fires by firebrands was developed. When a large earthquake hits a city, it is conceivable that multiple urban fires may simultaneously break out and spread involving extensive urban area. In order to implement effective fire safety measures in the regional disaster prevention plan for reducing the damage by post-earthquake fires, it is essential to develop a simulation model which can predict fire spread behavior involving broad area of a city reasonably. Among the mechanisms of urban fire spread, fire spotting is the most difficult to develop a prediction model in spite of its significance in fire spread. In this paper, the fire spread in the Sakata City Fire in 1976 was simulated by using Monte Carlo method for validating the proposed model of spotting fires, where the proposed model was incorporated into an existing physics-based model for urban fire spread. The obtained results showed that estimated macroscopic fire spread behavior such as number of spotting fires roughly corresponded with the survey report of that time.