2018 Volume 68 Issue 1 Pages 1-14
A numerical procedure for estimating an area-wide post-earthquake fire loss of an unspecified group of buildings is proposed. The procedure consists of three parts, namely the fire behavior simulation using the two-layer zone model, the evacuation simulation of occupants using the network-based model and probabilistic estimation of fire extinguishment by fire-fighting. The sub-procedures considers the damage of fire safety equipment systems (sprinkler system, smoke exhaust system, fire alarm system, indoor fire hydrants, fire extinguishers, and fire doors) using the event tree after seismic shaking in order to consider their availability following an earthquake. The composition data of each building (floor area of rooms, number of partitions, connection type of rooms), which are generally unknown but prerequisite of the fire loss analysis, are estimated using a statistical model obtained by analyzing floor plans of 300 existing buildings of commercial use. Fire loss analysis of an individual building for the validation of the building composition estimation is conducted. The result shows that the proposed procedure captures the overall features of the human loss and smoke spread area although it may involve a certain error. As a case study, post-earthquake fire losses in three commercial areas are analyzed under a JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) seismic intensity of 6-upper. The result shows that the total floor area can be used as a parameter generalizing the expected loss caused by a fire.
