55 巻 (1989) 513 号 p. 1095-1100
Safety evaluation of components with crack-like defects must be treated probabilistically because the initial size of defects and other parameters are nondeterministic. In the case of an actual structure, such as a pressure vessel, the most important defect is the surface flaw. But life prediction involving surface flaws is not simple, as the aspect ratio of a crack may change gradually as the crack grows. Therefore, probabilistic analysis is also complicated. This paper presents a simple method of probabilistic life prediction for the fatigue crack propagation of a semiellipitical surface crack, and the influence of several parameters on crack propagation life is discussed.