日本機械学会論文集 A編
Online ISSN : 1884-8338
Print ISSN : 0387-5008
配管破損率を産業横断型配管損傷データベースから推定するための階層ベイズモデルの導入
岡島 智史泉 聡志酒井 信介
著者情報
ジャーナル フリー

74 巻 (2008) 741 号 p. 741-748

詳細
PDFをダウンロード (1216K) 発行機関連絡先
抄録

Building a cross-industry database of pipe failure is an effective method to improve the evaluation accuracy of pipe failure rate. Although pipes have many common failure mechanisms, they are used in many different environments in each industry. Thus, to enable practical use of a cross-industry database, it is desirable to develop a method for evaluating pipe failure rate that is capable of modeling the variability between different industries. The hierarchical Bayes model is one method that can model the variability between different data sources. In this paper, a method for evaluating the pipe failure rate for one industry is developed based on the hierarchical Bayes model. Even when the database contains small number of failure records, this proposed method is always capable of utilizing those records to evaluate the failure rate for a specific industry. Using the proposed method in conjunction with a cross-industry pipe-failure database, the pipe-failure rate was evaluated to a greater accuracy than that obtained using the conventional Bayes method.

著者関連情報
© 社団法人日本機械学会
前の記事 次の記事
feedback
Top