植生自然度を用いた都市緑地の環境変化の予測に関する研究 －北九州市を対象として－

抄録

Characteristics of the deteriorated spaces, which were defined as the spaces that the degree of naturalness in vegetation was decreased from 1983 to 1996 at the urban green spaces, were evaluated from some indices such as their area, elevation, slope degree, naturalness, and so on by using the frequency distribution in Kitakyushu City. Most of the spaces were characterized by the woodlands, smaller than 5 ha in area, lower than 200 m in altitude and smaller than 3° in slope degree, abutted on the urban green spaces of smaller than 600 ha in area. The ranks of naturalness, which were defined by the degree of naturalness in vegetation, were predicted by the single regression for choosing one of their indices that showed the highest correlation coefficient as the predictor variable. The map indicating the probability of the urban green spaces in the future were drawn by overlapping the ranks of naturalness and two kinds of spaces specified by the City Planning Law (the Urbanization Promotion Area or the Urbanization Control Area). The quantitative indicator for managing the urban green spaces in the city was showed by the map.