国際政治
Online ISSN : 1883-9916
Print ISSN : 0454-2215
ISSN-L : 0454-2215
中ソ関係の変化と中国の軍事戦略
東アジアの新しい国際環境
川島 弘三
著者情報
ジャーナル フリー

1984 年 1984 巻 78 号 p. 45-63,L7

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There have been some great wave motions in the Sino-Soviet relations during the past several years. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979, China postponed the normalization talks with the Soviet Union. The treaty of alliance between the P. R. C. and the U. S. S. R. lost effect. Throughout the year of 1980, the relations between the two countries have remained frozen.
In March 1982, Brezhnev, speaking in Tashkent, gave a signal of Soviet willingness to resume the negotiation with China. Throughout the several rounds of talks, China called for three preconditions for normalization (including the withdrawal or reduction of Soviet forces in the area bordering on China) and the Soviets proposed implementing “confidence building measures” in the border area. The result fell short of expectation.
The focus of the talks is how to resolve the problem of the military threat in the border area.
Since the mid-1960s, the Soviet Union has greatly increased its ground forces along the border. In order to respond to the tensions in 1979-1980, China began to shift its strategic posture from “defense in depth” to “forward defense” and changed its force deployment. The Chinese troops advanced to an intermediate area between the border and the “deep” depth. Since 1981, the Chinese militay leadership adopted a “combined arms operation” and began to study its applications in this theater.
The main Chinese operation plan is to interdict a high-speed, deep penetretion attack of Soviet armoured forces, at the defence Zone organized in the intermediate area and to go on a counter-offensive by using light anti-tank guided weapon (ATGW) forces. The conversion of tactial concepts into “forward defense” and “point defense” (to intercept a Soviet surprise attack) means de facto abandonment of the Mao Zedong's military doctrine of “people's war.” So long as the Soviet Union makes military threat against China, China will not be able to afford the policy of “equidistance” between the U. S. S. R. and the U. S. A. There will be much bigger tilt to the West, and detente with the Soviet Union will go slowly in the forseeable future.
But some cardres who studied in the Soviet Union in the 1950s have gradually gained power and Chinese weaponry and strategic concepts are largely based on the Soviet model. If the Soviets pull back some troops from the border, there will be some probability of a drastic change in Sino-Soviet relations.

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© 一般財団法人 日本国際政治学会
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