「アイディア」と対外政策決定論

福田ドクトリンをめぐる日本の政策決定過程

抄録

The concept of ideas or “an ideational approach” in the literature on foreign policy decision making has been extensively explored in recent years. In tandem with types of decision making, it is argued that ideas, defined as policy beliefs held by individuals, are likely to represent a new type, thereby enlarging the horizon of the conventional models of rational, organizational and bureaucratic decision making. Indeed, the works by Odell, Checkel, Goldstein and Keohane cogently suggest that ideas have an independent impact on the outcomes of foreign policy, and are often important determinants of government policy.
As a preoperational attempt, this article is to demonstrate how ideas can be applied to the process of Japanese foreign policy making by closely examining the case of the Fukuda Doctrine propounded by former Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda in August 1977. The case study concludes that the promulgation of the doctrine can best be explained by ideas held by a policy team composed of foreign ministry officials. Having construed the doctrine as a somewhat novel departure from Japan's reactive foreign policy, it follows that policy change can be influenced by ideas simply because new ideas emerge as a result of changes in underlying conditions of existing ideas. It also suggests some research propositions: whether ideas are likely to be adopted is dependent on (1) the saliency of an idea held by “policy entrepreneurs” to the political leadership, (2) the effectiveness of “policy windows” a policy community has in order to get access to the leadership, and (3) the ability of the political leadership to empower the policy community during the process of policy making.