中国一九八六-八九-民主化の天折と国際環境-

「民主化」と国際政治・経済

抄録

On June 4 1989, the People's Liberation Army suppressed the democracy movement, in which political reform from above mingled with students' protest against corruption, inflation and undemocratic policy. Reformists just drew up The Grand Design for Political Reform (GDPR) at the 13th Party Congress and were implementing it, when the democracy movement died prematurely.
There then appeared to be an international democratic wave. System reform in East Europe, Perestroika under Gorbachev and democratization in Taiwan and South Korea developed almost simultaneously. The paper analyses why the democracy movement in China was wrecked under the international situation which would be favorable to promote democracy.
The paper describes how reformist leaders and elites evaluated the international environment, through analyzing the drawing process of the GDPR which had decisive meaning for dismantlement of the Party-State system, and international news of The World Economic Herald which had a great influence upon reformists.
According to the O'Donnell/Schmitter's argument, after a separation of authoritarianism into hawks and doves, once the latter declares for liberalization, then the democratization process will begin. In China, however, only a few reformist leaders were eliminated from power. Regime transformation did not occur. In my opinion, there were three causes as follows:
(1) The GDPR itself was drawn by the brains who had only personal connection with Premier Zhao Ziyang and his aide Bao Dong. They did not succeed in involving the Party, bureaucracy and local leaders. So, we can certify that reformists hardly had a power base which could divide the power structure.
(2) Political pressure from the outside world surpassed domestic political capacity. It may be natural that tremendous democratic pressure from outside causes a violent reaction.
(3) Institutionalization and organization of counter-power under the authoritarian regime would be a formative factor of domestic political capacity. But, in 1986-89, China had none of these factors.