2018 Volume 5 Issue 4 Pages 18-00093
This paper describes the development of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology against a combination hazard of strong wind and rainfall. In this combination hazard PRA, a hazard curve is evaluated in terms of maximum instantaneous wind speed, hourly rainfall, and rainfall duration. A scenario analysis has provided event sequences resulting from the combination hazard of strong wind and rainfall. The typical event sequence was characterized by the function loss of auxiliary cooling system, of which heat transfer tubes could crack due to cycle fatigue caused by cyclic contacts with rain droplets. This cycle fatigue crack could occur if rain droplets enter into the air cooler of the system following the cooler's roof failure due to strong-wind-generated missile impact. This event sequence has been incorporated into an event tree which addresses component failure caused by the combination hazard. As a result, a core damage frequency has been estimated to be about 10-6/year in total by multiplying discrete hazard frequencies by conditional decay heat removal failure probabilities. The dominant sequence is the manual operation failure of an air cooler damper following the failure of external fuel tank due to the missile impact. The dominant hazard is the maximum instantaneous wind speed of 20−40 m/s, the hourly rainfall of 20−40 mm/h, and the rainfall duration of 0−10 h.